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Atlanta Consultation III
The Carter Center
Atlanta , Georgia
January 21, 2010
President John F. Kennedy truly believed that there was a serious risk that nuclear weapons were destined to sweep all over the world. In March of 1963 in response to a reporter’s question at a news conference, he said, “Personally, I am haunted by the feeling that by 1970 . . . there may be 10 nuclear powers instead of 4 and by 1975, 15 or 20. . . . I would regard that as the greatest possible danger and hazard.” He spent much of his presidency pursuing the cause of nonproliferation.
Since the mid-twentieth century almost all American presidents have placed arms control and nonproliferation policy high on their agendas. President Eisenhower considered his failure to achieve a nuclear test ban his greatest disappointment. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the NPT, was signed on President Johnson’s watch. President Nixon oversaw the negotiation of the SALT I Agreements and the beginning of the SALT II Treaty process. The SALT II process continued under President Ford and was brought to a conclusion under President Carter. President Carter also made the first truly serious attempt to actually negotiate a comprehensive nuclear test ban. The CTBT was finally signed by President Clinton, although it is, as we all know, not yet in force. In addition, President Carter provided inspirational, unprecedented leadership on nuclear nonproliferation the effect of which has lasted to this day. President Reagan advocated the abolition of all nuclear weapons and completed the medium range nuclear missile Treaty. The Administration of President George H.W. Bush concluded four major arms control treaties during his four years as president: the START I Treaty, the START II Treaty, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty and the Chemical Weapons Convention. Thus, nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament policy and negotiations have been at the center of U.S. foreign policy for much of the last 50 years.
But no president has spoken out more eloquently and in such a comprehensive way as did President Obama in Prague last April. He declared his strong support for a replacement START Treaty to be followed by deeper cuts in nuclear weapons leading to a multilateral nuclear weapon reduction negotiation involving all of the nuclear weapon states. He reiterated his support for U.S. ratification and entry into force of the CTBT and confirmed his support for a process leading to a nuclear weapon free world. He underscored his commitment to the strengthening of the NPT, along with measures to do more to safeguard fissile material around the world. He urged the prompt negotiation of a fissile material cut-off treaty. The Prague speech unquestionably placed the current U.S. Administration generally and President Obama personally squarely behind an activist program in nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. And with President Obama in the chair the United Nations Security Council, by means of Resolution 1787, is now not only committed to progress in arms control and nonproliferation but also explicitly resolved to pursue the abolition of nuclear weapons. President Obama has opened the door, it is essential that the world community collectively walk through this door that has been opened and follow the path that lies beyond.
Of greatest importance is the CTBT. The NPT, the central international agreement underlying international peace and security in today’s world, is a strategic bargain built on a fundamental arrangement: nuclear nonproliferation for most of the world, now more than 180 countries, in exchange for peaceful nuclear cooperation and nuclear weapon disarmament to be undertaken by the five NPT recognized nuclear weapon states. The principal quid for the quo of most nations of the world never acquiring nuclear weapons is the test ban. It is the only arms control agreement directly mentioned in the NPT and it is the most significant commitment made by the nuclear weapon states to bring the necessary political balance to the NPT. There are obstacles now in the way but they must not deter us.
Another major issue is the negotiation of a follow-on START Treaty. This negotiation was to be completed by the end of 2009, but a few issues, one report has said only three, largely in the verification area, remain. A warhead level in the range of 1,600 operational strategic warheads and a limit of less than 800 strategic nuclear weapon delivery vehicles apparently have been agreed. These are significant reductions and important steps forward. Their achievement will open the door to further, much steeper U.S.-Russian reductions in strategic nuclear weapons, making possible consideration of multilateral nuclear weapon reduction negotiations. Such negotiations if successful would put the world community on the road toward the elimination of nuclear weapons; eventually to be provided for in an international legal instrument.
This is a time of great promise because of the commitment of President Obama and his Administration and the widespread support for progress in the international community. It is also a time of great difficulty because of the many very serious crises that were left at the end of 2008 and against which only limited progress has been made, such as the world economic downturn, climate change, North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Palestine. But while the hour is growing late, it is not too late. Success remains possible; all of us must stay committed to arms control and nonproliferation efforts, and we can still build that safer and more secure world that all of us want.
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