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NPT: not signed
CTBT: 1996 (signed but not ratified)
First Test: ??
First Hydrogen Bomb: ??
Current number of nuclear warheads:
Strategic: 0
Tactical: ~200
Total: ~200
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Last Updated: 2/27/02
Israel’s nuclear research program began with the founding of the country in 1948. Weapons research accelerated under Prime Minister Ben-Gurion in 1955 when the Israeli government concluded a security agreement with France. Israel, France, and Britain jointly invaded Egypt during the Suez Canal Crisis of 1956. After the failure of that effort, France decided to embark on a nuclear weapons program and to aid Israel in its program as well. In 1958, Israel began construction on the Dimona reactor in the Negev desert. Despite decreased French support under President Charles de Gaulle, Israel completed the reactor and probably had a basic nuclear capability, if not an actual weapon, by 1967. Although the United States at first objected to Israel’s nuclear program, by the late 1960s it tacitly accepted Israel as a nuclear country and stopped pressuring Israel to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty. (To this day, Israel has not signed the NPT.) By most accounts, Israel has continued to develop its nuclear arsenal by greatly increasing its stockpile, pursuing missile technology, developing miniature nuclear weapons, and possibly by building thermonuclear weapons. Israel may have conducted a nuclear test jointly with South Africa in the Indian Ocean in 1979, and it has obtained materials through numerous covert channels.
Israel has never formally admitted that it possesses nuclear weapons. When asked, government officials invoke what they call a policy of opacity, repeating the formula that "Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East." However, as one analyst has pointed out, the United States ‘introduced’ weapons to the Middle East when it stored nuclear bombs in Saudi Arabia and in the Mediterranean (CDI). This ambiguity allows Israel to deny that it possesses nuclear weapons while maintaining a potent nuclear deterrent. Furthermore, it provides an impetus for the United States to maintain Israel’s conventional superiority over its neighbors in order to avoid nuclear war in the Middle East should Israel feel its existence is threatened. Israel’s stance of denial was weakened in 1986, when Mordechai Vanunu, a former technician at Dimona, leaked classified information and photographs to a London newspapers. He was arrested in Rome and is still serving an eighteen year sentence in solitary confinement. Using the information he released, experts concluded that Israel had a large arsenal at that time, comprising perhaps 100 to 200 warheads. Israel is also developing a missile defense system in conjunction with the United States.
Although Israel has not used its nuclear weapons, it has been on nuclear alert several times. During the Yom Kippur War, which began on October 6, 1973, Israeli officials put their weapons on alert and allegedly considered using them, at least until they realized that the Egyptians and Syrians had limited objectives in attacking. When Saddam Hussein fired SCUD missiles at Israel during the Gulf War, Israel put its weapons on alert again and apparently was prepared to use them if Hussein put chemical warheads on his missiles. Bob Aldridge claims that Israel used nuclear landmines in the Golan Heights in the 1980s. Israel has, however, acted to prevent other Middle Eastern nations from developing nuclear capability, most notably when it bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981.
In recent years, Israel’s leaders, under regional as well as domestic pressure, have been somewhat more open about their nuclear capability. The topic was even discussed in the Knesset in 2000, though in a contentious and unproductive way. However, no major change seems to be imminent. Indeed, the argument that Israel needs a second-strike capability is gaining momentum within Israel at this time.
Israel’s delivery arsenal is broad and well developed. It has Jericho I and Jericho II missiles with ranges of 400 km and 1,450 km, respectively, and may have a Jericho III missile with a range up to 5,000 km, as well as Lance missiles. Israel has allegedly tested a Dolphin nuclear submarine, but accounts vary as to whether it is yet functional. Israel also has numerous varieties of bombers, including the F-15, the F-16, the F-4E, and the Phantom 2000. The upper estimate for nuclear forces is 400 weapons for a total of 50 megatons. These include both strategic and tactical weapons, including nuclear landmines probably based on a neutron bomb and nuclear artillery shells.
Resources:
Cohen, Avner. Israel and the bomb. New York: Columbia University Press, 1998.
Library of Congress Studies Online: Israel
http://www.loc.gov
Evron, Yair. Israel’s Nuclear Dilemma. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1994.
http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukestab.html#Israel
Aronson, Shlomo and Oded Brosh. The Politics and Strategy of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East. Opacity, Theory, and Reality: An Israeli Perspective. Albany: State University of New York Press, 1992. |
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