G: We are sometimes told that terrorism is the greatest threat in today's world.
The acts of terrorism, in Beslan, New York, Moscow, Bali and many other places are indeed abominable.

And so many people are killed by this senseless terrorism.

A. Between 2000 and 6000 persons, civilians, are killed every year in international terrorist attacks. And the only attempt we see to deal with the hydra of terrorism is the "War on terrorism". This war now goes on in different forms in many parts of the world. And many are killed in that war. For instance, in the ongoing Second war on Chechnya, which is proclaimed to be a war on terrorism, tens of thousands of civilians have been killed. And in Iraq, maybe 100 000. And of these, almost one half of the victims are children.

G. So it seems that the war on terrorism is causing many more dead, and certainly much more destruction than terrorism

A. Yes. But maybe that is the only way to stop the growth of terrorism.

G. Maybe. Or maybe not. Maybe the war on terrorism instead recruits more terrorists, young men who have seen their loved family members, maybe their children, killed by the War on Terrorism. The war on terrorism can also be used as an excuse for starting a war. . No terrorists from Iraq attacked the USA, but with the pretense of fighting terrorists it was possible to get the American people to support the war on Iraq.

A. But there are much more serious threats to mankind than terrorism.
For instance, about 30 000 children under age five die each day in the world. About one half of these children could be saved by very simple preventive measures, vaccination, clean water, and more breast-feeding and basic education for the women. Fifteen thousand children a day, 10 children every minute, die because wee do not provide such simple measures. And one pregnant woman dies every minute from complications of pregnancy, because of the absence of basic prenatal care. And there are more than 11 million children orphaned in Sub-Saharan Africa alone, because of AIDS. We know very well how slow the spread of HIV/AIDS considerably. We know, but we don't.

G: International terrorism is a serious and difficult problem. But it is obviously not the greatest threat we are facing.

Fighting terrorism with a War or Terrorism is very costly, in money and in lives. Fighting the unnecessary suffering and death of children in the poor world, and in the poor parts of the rich world, is much simpler, and so much cheaper.

To bring vaccines, clean water, vitamin A, education about HIV/AIDS, to the children and mothers of the world, to decrease the mortality of children under five by 1/3 in only five years would cost much much less than the so called "war on terror", or the war in Iraq.

So why do we talk so much about terrorism, and so much less about children dying from measles?

A: This is certainly a subject we ought to be discussing at this conference.

G. So there are many much more serious threats to most of mankind than terrorism.

Should we then see terrorism as a relatively marginal phenomenon?

A. Not at all. In the first place, terrorism and War on terrorism prevents us from building a world of cooperation and confidence. Terrorism and the war on terrorism divide the world, a world that needs to be united.

And, secondly, terrorism may grow to be much more deadly than it is today.

G. You are thinking of nuclear terrorism.

It is very likely that terrorist will get hold of nuclear weapons in the future.

There are nuclear weapons or fissile material that can be stolen or bought by terrorists. And there are capable physicists and engineers also among the terrorists, or such competence can also be bought.

A: A nuclear weapon exploded in the center of Rome could kill hundreds of thousands of people. A large part of this wonderful city of Rome would have to be closed off for decades, poisoned by radioactivity.

G: This would be an enormous catastrophe. And if terrorism grows, and if nuclear weapons are allowed to remain on this earth, it is very likely event. Somewhere, in some big city.

But it would not be the end of the world.

There are worse scenarios. Now, if you were a leader of a terrorist group with your mind set on destroying the USA, or Russia, how would you do that?

A: For instance this way. I would first get some hackers to cause a serious malfunctioning in the computer systems of the country. As you know, it has proven possible to get access even into the Pentagon computer system. The Russian military computer system is probably even more vulnerable. To make the impression that this disturbance is the act of a certain enemy would not be too difficult. I would then explode one or more nuclear weapons placed in different places of the country. The President of the country would then have only minutes to decide whether this really is an attack from the other nuclear power, minutes to decide whether to Launch on Warning? Can I wait, or/and risk that our nuclear missiles will be destroyed on ground if I don't fire them now?

Or would he launch them, and cause the destruction of all human civilization?

G: Is this really a likely scenario?
Maybe, or maybe not. Remember that the attacks on Sept. 11 2001 in the USA were so unlikely before they occurred that no one even thought about the possibility. And why are nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert in Russia and in the USA? The only reason I can think of is that the leaders in both countries still fear a surprise attack from the other side. Even today when the relations between the countries are good. And we do not know if the relations between these two countries will remain friendly ten or twenty years from now.

A: We do agree that terrorism is a serious threat to the order in our society but a far greater damage is done by the response, the war on terrorism. And we agree that nuclear terrorism could cause enormous suffering and long standing effects.

But nuclear terrorism can not destroy mankind, can not destroy our human civilization. That can only be done by the resources of Russia or the USA.

G: At this moment more than 5000 strategic nuclear weapons are on hair trigger alert, to be fired, maybe by mistake, misunderstanding, technical malfunctions or the act of a computer hacker.

This is the most serious threat to the survival of mankind. Nuclear weapons and mankind can in the long run not coexist. One will have to go.
Nuclear weapons must be abolished

Gunnar.westberg@slmk.org Alexro80@web.de www.ippnw.org