Director of U.N. Special Commission on Iraq
To Eliminate Weapons of Mass Destruction
March 7, 2001
Jonathan Granoff (JG): We have the privilege of speaking with Ambassador Richard Butler. Why is Thirteen Days an important movie for the people to see?
Richard Butler (RB): Jonathan, there have been two occasions which reveal the full power and horror of nuclear weapons: The first occasion was the dropping of the atom bombs over Japan in 1945. The second was the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
Thirteen Days depicts the most dramatic instance in which nuclear weapons were almost used. We were very fortunate, in a number of ways, that President Kennedy and the team around him saw us through that great danger. The movie is a truly significant representation of a danger that has not gone away. Although the events in this movie took place forty years ago, the nuclear threat is actually more dangerous today. The weapons that were involved then have been greatly superseded by increasingly powerful nuclear weapons. It took thirteen days to resolve the crisis. I don't know, and I don't think anyone should assume, that we would be as fortunate a second time.
We won't have that luxury next time.
GRANOFF: You are saying that we had thirteen days then and we would have less time now? We haven't backed off and given ourselves more breathing room should there be a crisis?
BUTLER: The beginning of the nuclear age began with two nuclear weapons: the two that we used over Japan. In the subsequent 30 years, no less than 80,000 nuclear weapons were created. Throughout the Cold War period, the heavyweight, central strategic weapons were maintained on a status of hair-trigger alert.
Even though the Cold War ended ten years ago, people do not realize that the major strategic weapons remain on hair-trigger alert-ready for use at moment's notice.
GRANOFF: Hair-trigger alert refers to the time between a perceived launch and the duty to return a launch?
BUTLER: I don't think that any of us knows exactly how much time that is, but it is a matter of minutes. People have a right to know this.
GRANOFF: It is a matter of minutes?
BUTLER: It is a matter of minutes between the moment the warning is given that an attack is underway and the time to authorize a launch of nuclear weapons in retaliation. That takes place in a matter of minutes.
GRANOFF: Is there any kind of shield that can be created to protect us from the launch of missiles?
BUTLER: No, there is not. There is talk now of a national ballistic missile defense shield. I think it is an extremely disturbing idea. Even those who most favor the idea of a shield do not contend that it would deal with the problem I have just described: the use of heavy-weight, intercontinental ballistic missiles on hair-trigger alert. These weapons are the central strategic systems of the United States and Russia. Missile defense doesn't deal with that problem at all.
GRANOFF: You were in charge of the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq that was set up to get rid of the weapons of mass destruction under the control of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. You must have a unique perception of the dangers posed by terrorism and states led by tyrants with weapons of mass destruction.
What are your thoughts about how we can best deal with those kinds of situations and the dangers that they pose?
BUTLER: I was involved in the business of trying to get rid of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. I came to that job having spent 25 years-all of my adult life-dealing with the problem of nuclear weapons.
The problem of nuclear weapons has many faces-more than we have time to talk about today. But allow me to focus on the central concerns.
1. Nuclear weapons are utterly devastating. They not only cause massive and indiscriminate damage through the size of the explosion involved, but they also release radioactivity. The consequences are simply incalculable for humanity and for the earth.
2. As long as they exist, one day they will be used-either by decision or by accident. There have been over 50 records of accidents in which nuclear weapons were almost used, as in the movie Thirteen Days. I don't think anyone should assume that we would be as fortunate a second time.
Do you hear what I am saying? Nuclear weapons are devastating in their consequences. Their existence means that one day their devastating use will occur.
3. Finally, they are spreading. They are spreading because there is an axiom, an irrefutable truth, about nuclear weapons. It is this: as long as any one state or country has them, others will seek to acquire them. That has been the history of nuclear weapons.
I have not addressed the question of terrorist use. We must also expect that one-day they will end up in the hands of terrorist groups. That is almost too terrible to contemplate.
These are the three central truths about nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons threaten us all, and the only safe thing to do with them is eliminate them.
GRANOFF: In your opinion, the elimination of all nuclear weapons worldwide is a viable, practical and do-able goal-it is a goal that we can achieve in our lifetime?
BUTLER: Absolutely. It is the only safe way to solve the problem that nuclear weapons pose to all humanity.
But lest that sound too starry-eyed, let me make this clear: the main nuclear weapons states-the United States, Russia, Great Britain, France, and China-have promised the world, legally promised the world, that they will eliminate their nuclear weapons. They have made that promise because they know that the only safe course is to eliminate them.
It concerns me that people don't know that the nuclear states have signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2000. They have promised in Article VI of the NPT to "pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control."
They have not been active enough in fulfilling that promise because it is very difficult to achieve.
Can it be done? Of course, it can be done. It is not beyond the will of political and military leaders to design the means through which nuclear weapons can be progressively and safely reduced without jeopardizing anyone's security.
I am convinced that the more that is achieved, the more people will feel comfortable with it and want to get on with the next lot of reductions.
It can be done if people commit themselves to it. It can be done safely. It doesn't mean you can wave a wand over them. It won't happen overnight. But it can be done progressively until one day that goal of zero will be in sight.
I promise you, Jonathan, when people see that they will say: "My God, we are going to do this. We are actually going to get there." And it will be done.
GRANOFF: It is clear that John F. Kennedy was committed to that goal after the Cuban Missile Crisis. There are a number of speeches where he made that his passionate plea that we take that sword from over our heads and get rid of it.
Ambassador Butler, I want to thank you so much for your time and for your words of inspiration. Thank you.
BUTLER: Thank you.
Thirteen Days is a great movie. It tells us some truths we need to know. We are very fortunate that Kennedy was there, that the job was done that was done. That he was able to-and I think this is one of the more fascinating parts of the movie-he was able to resist what were naked attempts, unconstitutional attempts, by the military to take his power away from him. But he stood there and represented the people, the people of the United States, and indeed of the world, and got us through that crisis.
We may never have another such president or another such chance, which is why we must stay on the path to eliminate nuclear weapons.
Thank you.
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